✈ Aviation Fuels · SAF
Sources: IATA · S&P Platts · ICCT · EASA 2026
🟡 Est. Monthly · IATA
SAF HEFA blended avg.
€2.09
per litre · IATA SAF Monitor est. · May 2026
▲ +0.00% vs ref.
🟡 Est. Monthly · EASA
eSAF Power-to-Liquid
€7.70
per litre · EASA ref. €7,695/t · INERATEC ERA ONE
— +0.00% vs ref.
🟢 AUTO · Daily · Brent
Jet A-1 (fossil reference)
€0.57
per litre · Platts CIF NWE · IATA avg.
— +0.00% vs ref.
🟡 Est. Monthly · Platts
HVO / Renewable Diesel (Neste)
€1.92
per litre · Neste MY · Fastmarkets ARA est.
▲ +0.00% vs ref.
🟡 Calc. · vs Jet A-1
SAF / Jet A-1 Premium ratio
SAF costs 2.4× more than fossil Jet A-1 · May 2026
⚡ Hydrogen · All Colours
Sources: IEA · IMARC · S&P Global · atawey.com 2026
🟡 Est. Quarterly · IEA
Green Hydrogen EU avg.
€6.20
per kg · IEA / IMARC April 2026 · $6.69/kg
▼ +0.00% vs ref.
🟡 Est. Quarterly · IEA
Blue Hydrogen (SMR + CCS)
€3.80
per kg · atawey.com range €3-5/kg 2026
— Stable · CCS cost dependent
🟡 Est. Quarterly · IEA
Grey Hydrogen (fossil SMR)
€2.50
per kg · atawey.com range €1-4/kg 2026
— Dominant today · 95% of supply
⚑ Target · Not commercial
Natural H₂ (geological est.)
~€0.50
per kg · target cost · REGALOR II 2027 pending
⚑ Not yet commercial · Target 2030–31
Hydrogen Cost Ladder — All Pathways Compared · May 2026
Natural H₂ (geological target) Not yet commercial
~€0.50/kg
Grey H₂ (fossil SMR) Dominant today
~€2.50/kg
Blue H₂ (SMR + CCS) Transitional
~€3.80/kg
Green H₂ EU avg (electrolysis) Apr 2026
~€6.20/kg
Green H₂ Spain best-in-class S&P Jan 2026
€10.23/kg
🚢 Maritime Fuels · Carbon
Sources: Maersk · Methanol Institute · EEX · euenergy.live 2026
🟡 Est. Monthly · Maersk
e-Methanol (green · Maersk)
€920
per tonne · European Energy Kassø facility est.
▼ +0.00% vs ref.
🟡 Est. Monthly · Yara
e-Ammonia (green NH₃)
€720
per tonne · Yara / ACME maritime est.
▲ +0.00% vs ref.
🟡 Est. Monthly · ARA
Bio-LNG (biomethane)
€820
per tonne · FuelEU Maritime est. · ARA spot
▲ +0.00% vs ref.
🟢 AUTO · Daily · EEX
EU Carbon Price (ETS)
€80.71
per tonne CO₂ · EEX · euenergy.live Apr 2026 avg.
▲ +0.00% vs ref.
🚗 E-Fuels · Road Transport
Sources: Norsk e-Fuel · HIF Global · INERATEC · EU 2035 exemption
🟡 Est. Monthly · HIF
e-Petrol Power-to-Liquid
€3.40
per litre · production cost est. · current H₂ price
— +0.00% · EU 2035 exemption applies
⚑ Scenario · 2030+
e-Petrol if natural H₂ €0.50/kg
~€1.80
per litre · theoretical · REGALOR II 2027 pending
⚑ Scenario price · not yet achievable
🟢 AUTO · Daily · Brent
Fossil Petrol (EU pump avg.)
€1.65
per litre · EU avg. at pump incl. taxes · May 2026
— Reference price · fossil
SAF Cost Premium vs Fossil Jet A-1 — ReFuelEU Mandate Tracker
Jet A-1 fossil (reference)
€0.87/L
HVO/HEFA SAF
€2.09/L
eSAF Power-to-Liquid
€7.70/L
eSAF if natural H₂ €0.50/kg (scenario)
~€3.00/L
ReFuelEU Aviation Mandates — SAF % Required at EU Airports
2025
SAF minimum blend — in force now
2%
2030
SAF minimum blend — incl. 1.2% eSAF
6%
2035
SAF minimum blend — incl. 5% eSAF
20%
2040
SAF minimum blend — incl. 10% eSAF
34%
2050
SAF minimum blend — incl. 35% eSAF
70%
📰 Latest Market News · May 2026
Belgium launches BE.Hydrogen national geological exploration programme — Minister Crucke visits REGALOR II borehole at Pontpierre, Moselle
IATA: SAF production growth slowing — 2.4 Mt projected for 2026 vs 1.9 Mt in 2025 · eSAF costs up to 12× fossil jet fuel
Maersk Laura completes first commercial voyage on e-methanol from Kassø facility, Denmark — 42,000 t/yr capacity operational
Horse Powertrain H12 engine achieves 44.2% thermal efficiency on renewable fuel — 3.3L/100km WLTP as range extender
EU ETS average €72/t April 2026 · CBAM enforcement Q1 2026 at €75.36/tCO₂e · ETS2 transport/buildings launches 2027
🌍 Natural Hydrogen Watch REGALOR II · 2027
46 MtLorraine deposit estimated · CNRS 2023
3 655mREGALOR II depth · Pontpierre · Oct 2025
17%H₂ concentration at 1,100m · CNRS
2027REGALOR II commercial results expected
If confirmed commercially viable, Lorraine natural H₂ at €0.50/kg would make eSAF competitive at ~€3/L and e-petrol at ~€1.80/L — approaching pump parity with fossil fuels. The EU's 2035 ICE exemption for certified e-fuels creates the regulatory framework. Belgium's BE.Hydrogen programme (launched May 27, 2026) adds potential second supply source. Results expected spring 2028.
📖 Synthetic Fuels Guide — Usage · Production · Availability
Educational reference · May 2026
SAF · HEFA
SAF HEFA — Sustainable Aviation Fuel
Usage: Drop-in replacement for Jet A-1 aviation fuel. Compatible with all current aircraft engines without modification. Used by airlines to meet ReFuelEU mandates.
Production: Hydrotreated Vegetable Oil (HVO) or Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA) pathway — processing used cooking oil, animal fats, or crop oils via hydrotreatment. Most mature and cost-competitive SAF pathway today.
Availability: Commercially available today. Neste, TotalEnergies, World Energy producing at scale. Supply constrained by feedstock (UCO, tallow). ~2.4 Mt produced globally in 2026 — only 0.8% of jet fuel demand.
CO₂ reduction vs fossil: 70–80% lifecycle · Max blend: 50% ASTM certified · Producers: Neste · TotalEnergies · World Energy · Repsol
🟡 Est. Monthly · EASA
eSAF — Power-to-Liquid Aviation Fuel
Usage: Synthetic kerosene produced from green hydrogen and captured CO₂. Drop-in for Jet A-1. The only aviation fuel pathway that can scale beyond biogenic feedstock limits. Required by ReFuelEU: 1.2% of all EU aviation fuel by 2030, 35% by 2050.
Production: Power-to-Liquid process: (1) electrolysis → green H₂, (2) CO₂ capture from industry or air, (3) Fischer-Tropsch or methanol-to-jet synthesis. Exothermic FT reaction — heat recovery critical for economics. Best plants achieve 80%+ efficiency with co-generation.
Availability: Very early commercial stage. Norsk e-Fuel (Norway), INERATEC ERA ONE (Frankfurt), Infinium Roadrunner (Texas) operating at small scale. Currently €7.70/L — 12× fossil jet. Needs natural H₂ at ~€0.50/kg to reach €3/L and mandate compliance economics.
CO₂ reduction: up to 95% lifecycle · Producers: Norsk e-Fuel · INERATEC · Infinium · Synhelion · HIF Global · Key bottleneck: green H₂ cost
HVO · Renewable Diesel
HVO — Hydrotreated Vegetable Oil
Usage: Drop-in renewable diesel. Compatible with all diesel engines without modification. Used in road transport (trucks, cars), maritime, and agriculture. Also co-processed into SAF. Excellent cold-flow properties — works in Arctic conditions.
Production: Hydrotreatment of vegetable oils (UCO, tallow, crop oils, palm oil) with hydrogen under pressure and heat. Removes oxygen, produces clean paraffinic hydrocarbon identical to fossil diesel. Same process as HEFA-SAF — same plants can switch between road diesel and aviation SAF.
Availability: Commercially available today at scale. Neste MY Renewable Diesel market leader. TotalEnergies Grandpuits (285 kt/yr from 2026). Repsol Puertollano (200 kt/yr 2026). High demand in 2025 kept prices elevated. Supply growing but feedstock-constrained.
CO₂ reduction: 70–90% vs fossil diesel · RED III compliant · Producers: Neste · TotalEnergies · Eni · Repsol · ENI Versalis
e-Methanol · Maritime
e-Methanol — Green Synthetic Methanol
Usage: Maritime fuel for dual-fuel methanol vessels. Chemical feedstock for plastics, paints, pharmaceuticals. Can be converted to e-petrol or eSAF via methanol-to-olefins pathway. Horse Powertrain D20 engine enables automotive use (M0–M100 blends, cold start to −40°C).
Production: Green H₂ + captured CO₂ → methanol via catalytic synthesis (Cu/ZnO reactor, ~250°C, 50-100 bar). Alternatively from biomass/biogas (bio-methanol). Kassø facility (Denmark, European Energy + Maersk) is first commercial-scale e-methanol plant globally — 42,000 t/yr, renewable electricity + biogenic CO₂.
Availability: Early commercial stage. Rotterdam biomethanol bunkering +200% in 2025. Maersk Laura operational on e-methanol since 2025. FuelEU Maritime driving demand. ~€920/t production cost estimate. Cheapest PtL pathway after eSAF.
CO₂ reduction: 65–95% vs HFO · FuelEU Maritime compliant · Producers: European Energy (Kassø) · CRI Iceland · REintegrate · Maersk fleet: 25 dual-fuel vessels on order
e-Ammonia · NH₃
e-Ammonia — Green Synthetic Ammonia
Usage: Zero-carbon maritime fuel (no CO₂ when burned — only N₂ and H₂O). Fertiliser production (largest use). Hydrogen energy carrier — can be cracked back to H₂ at destination. Increasingly considered for long-haul shipping alongside methanol.
Production: Haber-Bosch process: green H₂ + atmospheric N₂ → NH₃ (400–500°C, 150–300 bar, iron catalyst). Energy intensive but well-established technology. Green ammonia replaces grey ammonia (currently produced from fossil natural gas — 1.8% of global CO₂ emissions).
Availability: Pilot scale commercial projects. ACME India, Yara-BASF green ammonia. MAN Energy Solutions and WinGD developing ammonia engines. Key challenge: toxicity requires special handling. FuelEU Maritime creates long-term demand pull for 2030+.
CO₂ reduction: 100% vs HFO (no carbon) · Producers: Yara · ACME · CF Industries · NEOM Helios (4 Mt/yr project Saudi Arabia) · Challenge: NOx emissions, toxicity
e-Petrol · e-Diesel · PtL
e-Petrol & e-Diesel — Power-to-Liquid Road Fuels
Usage: Drop-in synthetic petrol and diesel for existing ICE vehicles. EU 2035 ICE ban exempts vehicles certified to run exclusively on e-fuels. Horse Powertrain H12 engine achieves 3.3L/100km WLTP at 44.2% thermal efficiency using synthetic fuel — making e-petrol viable for range-extended EVs.
Production: Same Fischer-Tropsch PtL process as eSAF — green H₂ + CO₂ → synthesis gas → liquid hydrocarbons, refined to petrol or diesel specifications. Key advantage: FT reaction is exothermic — heat recovery via steam turbine reduces net energy cost by 20–35%. Must be co-located with industrial H₂ and CO₂ sources for viability.
Availability: Very early stage. HIF Global Haru Oni plant (Chile, Porsche investment) producing first commercial e-petrol. Currently €3.40/L production cost — uncompetitive at pump without carbon pricing. With Lorraine natural H₂ at €0.50/kg: ~€1.80/L — approaching pump parity. Target 2030–2032.
CO₂ reduction: 70–95% vs fossil · EU 2035 exemption applies · Producers: HIF Global (Chile) · INERATEC · Infinium · Sunfire · Game-changer: natural H₂ Lorraine if confirmed 2027
🟡 Est. Monthly · ARA
Bio-LNG — Liquefied Biomethane
Usage: Drop-in replacement for fossil LNG in maritime transport and heavy road transport. Compatible with all LNG-ready vessels and trucks. FuelEU Maritime recognises bio-LNG as a compliance pathway. Lower lifecycle emissions than fossil LNG but methane slip remains a challenge.
Production: Biogas (from organic waste, agricultural residues, sewage) upgraded to biomethane, then liquefied to LNG specifications at −162°C. Well-established technology. EU has significant biomethane production capacity — RED III mandates increasing demand. Can also be produced via Power-to-Gas (green H₂ + CO₂ → synthetic methane).
Availability: Commercially available and growing rapidly. Rotterdam bunkering hub expanding bio-LNG capacity. Maersk considers bio-LNG as transitional pathway. FuelEU Maritime 2% GHG reduction target from 2025 — bio-LNG meets threshold. Scale limited by organic waste feedstock availability.
CO₂ reduction: 67–80% lifecycle vs HFO (methane slip dependent) · FuelEU Maritime compliant · Producers: Gasum · TotalEnergies · Shell · Rotterdam hub operational
🌍
Natural H₂ · Geological
Natural Hydrogen — The Game-Changer
Usage: If confirmed commercially viable — feedstock for all PtL e-fuels at dramatically lower cost. At €0.50/kg (vs €6.20/kg for green H₂ today), every synthetic fuel becomes economically competitive: eSAF at ~€3/L, e-petrol at ~€1.80/L, e-methanol at ~€250/t. The single biggest potential cost disruptor in the entire synthetic fuels sector.
Production: Extracted directly from geological formations via deep borehole drilling (similar to oil/gas). Natural H₂ produced continuously by serpentinisation: iron-rich rocks + deep groundwater → iron oxide + H₂. METS degassing technology separates H₂ from brine at surface. No electrolysis required — no electricity input. Renewably produced by the Earth itself.
Availability: Not yet commercial anywhere in the world. Lorraine (France): CNRS estimated 46 Mt deposit · REGALOR II borehole at 3,655m (Oct 2025) confirmed strong concentrations — commercial results expected 2027. Belgium: BE.Hydrogen programme launched May 2026 — first evaluation spring 2028. Mali (Bourakébougou): only current small commercial production (~5 kg/day).
CO₂: zero at source · REGALOR II results: 2027 · BE.Hydrogen Belgium results: 2028 · HY4Link pipeline: EU PCI status · Global resources estimated: trillions of tonnes (USGS)